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These probabilities further increase in September, which historically is the most active month of the Atlantic season.The probabilities then begin to wane in the Gulf of Mexico during October, as the favored risk region for tropical cyclones shifts to the Atlantic, where it remains through November.When taking a deeper look into the analog seasons, the composite distribution of hurricanes across the season does not stray far from the expected climatology.In other words, Gulf of Mexico hurricanes were favored early in the season during June and July, before the Atlantic and Caribbean become more active during August and the remainder of the season.

This is highlighted in the figure below, which shows the monthly breakdown of Gulf and Atlantic/Caribbean hurricanes and subsequent landfalls.An interesting fact is that Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was the only hurricane to make landfall along the East Coast after September in all our composite years.The Atlantic basin typically features more tropical cyclones during years when SSTs cool in the spring across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.Years that followed early-March sudden stratospheric warmings were also considered.Last, we took into account the distribution of tropical convection (T-storm activity) along the equator, which can enhance or decrease wind shear (typically unfavorable for tropical cyclone development) across the Atlantic basin.Of these analog years, Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes were twice as likely as those in the Gulf of Mexico; however, approximately 60% of all Gulf hurricanes made landfall somewhere along the coast from Texas to western Florida, while only 8% of Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes made landfall along the east coast of the U. Furthermore, the composite annual average of 2.8 hurricanes/year in the Gulf of Mexico is slightly less than double the 30-year normal of 1.6 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes/year.

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